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Economic and Political Determinants of Tax Amnesties in the U.S. States (EPub)

This paper revisits earlier studies on the determinants of tax amnesties. The novel findings are (i) amnesties are more likely to be declared during fiscal stress periods, and (ii) political factors significantly affect the introduction and timing of amnesties. In particular, the paper empirically disentangles opposite theoretical effects to show that governors perceive amnesties as another revenue source (rather than a tax increase alternative). Finally, supporting evidence shows that by breaking horizontal equity, amnesties might be perceived as unfair: a significant correlation exists between governors who lost their reelection bids and the introduction of a tax amnesty during their election years.

They could therefore blame the governor as being incompetent and not reelect
him/her. In the case where an amnesty is unsuccessful, then the governor's
reputation could also be tarnished by having introduced an unsuccessful
program.

Tax Amnesties

Theory, Trends, and Some Alternatives

Tax amnesties remain as popular as ever as a tool for raising revenue and increasing tax compliance. International experience, however, shows that the costs of tax amnesty programs often exceed the programs’ benefits. This paper weighs the advantages and disadvantages of tax amnesties, drawing on results from the theoretical literature, econometric evidence, and selected country and U.S. state case studies. The authors conclude that “successful” tax amnesties are the exception rather than the norm. Improvements in tax administration are the essential ingredient in addressing the main problems that tax amnesties seek to address. Indeed, the most successful amnesty programs rely on improving the tax administration’s enforcement capacity. ?Given the potential drawbacks of tax amnesties, a few alternative measures are discussed.

In this section we analyze the recent trends in tax amnesties, and some evidence
is provided regarding their revenue and compliance effects. The first section is
devoted to a review of the econometric literature on the (mainly revenue) effect of
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